At its September meeting, the TPB approved the 2023 National Capital Region Freight Plan and heard informational updates on new federal funding to reduce on-road sector greenhouse gas emissions, and a U.S. EPA climate pollution reduction planning grant. The final agenda item was a presentation on the COG Round 10 Cooperative Forecasts of Population, Households, and Employment. 

Meeting agenda, materials, and recording

ACTION ITEM

National Capital Region 2023 Freight Plan Approval

The board unanimously approved the 2023 TPB Freight Plan Update at the September meeting. A detailed overview of the plan, its contents, and freight trends in the region is available in the July 2023 TPB meeting recap.

Andrew Meese, TPB System Performance Planning Program Director, emphasized that in addition to the plan, the TPB will continue to work with its committees to incorporate new safety information as it comes available. Topics related to freight such as labor practices, workplace issues, delivery efficiency, and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction will be considered and discussed through ongoing COG and TPB activities as well as during future freight subcommittee meetings.

Cindy Dyballa, City of Takoma Park Councilmember, commented that with 73 percent of the region’s freight volume being carried on roads, freight is an important area when it comes to the TPB meeting its GHG emissions reduction goals. Dyballa asked whether the topic of freight impacts on GHG emissions would be addressed through the TPB’s Freight Subcommittee.

TPB Staff Director Kanti Srikanth responded that the TPB has ongoing work activities focused on developing GHG inventories by sector. As part of the work program, TPB staff will look at identifying GHG by freight and non-freight vehicles. In addition, in June 2023, the TPB provided comments to the U.S. EPA on the agency’s proposal to enact GHG standards for trucks.
 

INFORMATIONAL ITEMS

Federal transportation funding supports climate and energy initiatives                          

TPB Transportation Planner Erin Morrow introduced new and expanded U.S. Department of Transportation and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) funding for carbon reduction and Jeff King, COG Director of Climate, Energy, and Air Programs, introduced a new U.S. EPA Climate Pollution Reduction grant for the Washington DC/MD/VA/WV metropolitan statistical area (MSA).

The funding programs listed in the table below are dedicated to shifting the United States away from fossil fuel use and reducing GHG emissions. Of the programs, all are new with the exception of the Low or No Emission Program—which received additional funding under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL). State-level strategies to identify eligible programs and projects are required for the Carbon Reduction Program. The District, Maryland, and Virginia are scheduled to present their draft reduction strategies to the TPB board in October 2023.

(COG/TPB)

COG is pursuing funding under the Charging and Fueling Infrastructure discretionary program, which will deploy publicly accessible electric vehicle charging and alternative fueling. COG’s application is on behalf of seven jurisdictions for 48 locations. In addition, the District of Columbia, City of Alexandria, Prince William County, Montgomery County, and the Maryland Clean Energy Center are also applying for funding.

Another program of local interest is the Low or No-Emission Vehicle Program, WMATA, the University of Maryland, City of Alexandria, and Loudoun County have received FY 2023 funding for vehicles through this grant.

Takis Karantonis, Arlington County Board Member, noted that it would be beneficial moving forward for the TPB to identify how regional investments through these programs are supporting the TPB’s GHG emissions reduction goals. Srikanth responded that the states’ ability to leverage the climate-related grants with other funding is one way they are seeking to advance climate goals, and the TPB will monitor how the funding is being leveraged.  

The Climate Pollution Reduction Grants (CPRG) program extends beyond transportation to include energy, buildings, and waste. COG is slated to receive $1 million for pre-planning work for the entire metropolitan statistical area (MSA) for development of a Priority Climate Action Plan. Jurisdictions COG will work with on the plans include Virginia counties to the west of the region—Jefferson County in West Virginia, Warren County, and Clarke County and to the south and west counties—Culpeper, Fauquier, Rappahannock, Spotsylvania, Stafford, and the City of Fredericksburg. 

King explained that COG will receive $1 million for pre-planning work under this grant which will include development of a Priority Climate Action Plan for the area—required for COG to be eligible for $4.6 billion in competitive grants under the program. As part of the grant process, COG will conduct analyses of benefits for Low-Income Disadvantaged Communities, and there will be significant public engagement. Other elements of the action plan and the Comprehensive Climate Action Plan required by EPA include benefits and economic analyses, demonstration that the process will lead to net zero GHG emissions by 2050, and demonstration of how the grants will leverage other non-EPA federal and state funds.

COG’s coordination with the state DOTs on this work kicks off in October 2023. After the kickoff, next steps in the grant preparation and application process include seeking nominations from the Chief Administrative Officers of COG-member jurisdictions to represent jurisdictions on a steering committee and reaching out to agency staff to invite participation on a technical committee.

COG Round 10 Population, Households, and Employment Cooperative Forecasts

In preparation for the Visualize 2050 transportation plan update, COG prepares official growth inputs that will go into the air quality conformity analysis as well as inputs that are used on a regular basis in the TPB’s transportation models and assessments. Approved in June 2023 by the COG board, the TPB board also receives an overview of the cooperative forecasts.

Paul DesJardin, COG Director of Community Planning Services, informed TPB members that the regional forecast is based on employment and housing data provided by each local jurisdiction.

Regional forecast takeaways:

• Office occupancy was approximately 37 percent of pre-pandemic rates at date of forecast.
  As of winter 2023, the office occupancy rate has been 47 or 48 percent.
• Population growth is forecasted at about 6.8 million people, and household growth estimates show a range from a low of 2.25 million to a maximum of under 3 million for the region.
• Household sizes are projected to decline.
• Jobs growth is projected at a minimum of 3.6 million jobs to a maximum growth of just under 4.3 million jobs.
• Seventy-five percent of all wage and salary jobs expected by 2050 will be in professional services, education, health, and all other services.
• Growth is expected for the workforce population aged 25 to 44, and there’s expected to be a 64 percent increase in the age 65 and older population.
• Fairfax County is the most populous jurisdiction, and Prince George’s County is expected to have the highest population growth over the next 30 years.  

Brian Lee, City of Laurel Director of Public Works, commented that Laurel’s growth rate has been substantial and is projected to continue to grow moving forward which will have an impact on the forecast for northern Prince George’s County and the Laurel area.                      

Cindy Dyballa asked DesJardin about the differences in household sizes in suburban Maryland and suburban Virginia and how the projections relate to COG housing goals. In response, DesJardin said that housing assumptions are based on the local permitting process and are also informed by census figures, school enrollments, and other date sources. He noted that housing forecasts are below 2019 targets because of pandemic impacts on material costs and supply chain challenges.  

Walter Alcorn, Fairfax County Board Supervisor, thanked COG staff for continuing to monitor the forecasting model and coordinating with local government staff to assess and update the model and data assumptions as needed.

Chair’s Remarks

Chair Reuben Collins welcomed COG Executive Director Clark Mercer to provide an update on COG’s activities related to WMATA funding. Mercer reminded members of the board that COG’s work related to Metro funding began with the COG board retreat in the summer, which included a presentation by WMATA General Manager and CEO Randy Clarke. Mercer noted that transit systems across the country are currently being affected by a combination of inflation, COVID-influenced ridership loss, and personnel-related costs.

Mercer provided an overview of the three groups that COG is coordinating to understand and support efforts to address WMATA’s funding situation:

Metro Strategy Group 

• Elected officials from the District, Maryland, and Virginia who check in once a month for updates on legislative updates and concerns that may need to be addressed in order to receive policy maker support.

Metro Cost Structure Group

• The Strategy Group has asked Chief Administrative Officers and associated stakeholders in the region to work with Metro to walk through the budget to understand what is entailed in the approximate $750 million deficit of which an estimated 70 percent are personnel-related costs.    
• Mercer noted that COG staff has reached out to the MetroNow Coalition and related stakeholders and have encouraged the stakeholders asking substantive questions on the budget.

News Sharing

Mercer commented that there are good news stories to share about ridership, level of service, customer satisfaction, and a decrease in fare evasion.

• COG will bring together public information officers and chief communications officers along with MetroNow Coalition representatives and chambers of commerce to come together once a month to hear from Metro, COG, and to flag Metro-related topics to share.

Mercer ended his overview announcing that the Cost Structure Group will be issuing and interim report with initial findings of assessing the fiscal cliff, what is driving the financial situation, along with thoughts on how to address finances moving forward.

Committee and Director’s Report Highlights

TPB Technical Committee, TPB Community Advisory Committee, TPB Access for All Advisory Committee, Steering Committee, and Director’s reports are available on the September TPB meeting page.

Steering Committee and Director’s Report Highlights

The Steering Committee approved the following:

• A joint letter from the TPB, Metropolitan Washington Air Quality Committee (MWAQC), and the Climate Energy Environment Policy Committee (CEEPC) to support a proposal by the National Highway Safety Administration (NHTSA) to revise average fuel economy standards for passenger cars, light-duty trucks, and heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans.  
   
• Maryland Department of Transportation's request to have Commuter Connections expand the employer outreach service they provide currently to the members within the TPB planning area, to the rest of the state of Maryland. MDOT will provide additional funds to Commuter Connections to take on the expansion.

TIP Amendments:

• District of Columbia – additional funding for a new railroad bridge over New York Avenue NE
• MDOT - additional funds for a Prince George’s County study that will look for ways to improve traffic safety, storm water management, streetscapes, and extension of service to Prince George’s County Community College. The amendment also adds funds to purchase 20 zero-emission buses and electric upgrades.
• VDOT – additional funds for in-state support for Amtrak services, funding for the City of Alexandria to purchase zero-emission buses and add EV charging units at its bus facility, and funding for the Fairfax County Parkway. 

TPB Staff Director Kanti Srikanth reported that WMATA has renewed its support to the Street Smart safety campaign. September 22 is Car Free Day, and COG has a goal of 5,000 pledges this year. Looking ahead, prior to the October board meeting, the TPB will host an Intercity Rail and Bus Travel Work Session featuring a panel from the Virginia Passenger Rail Authority, Maryland Transit Administration/MARC, Amtrak, American Bus Association, and Union Station Redevelopment Corporation. The final regular item in the Director’s Report was an announcement that COG would be conducting a gate side air passenger survey on October 12 at the region’s three airports.

In his closing remarks, Srikanth recognized TPB’s Commuter Connections director Nicholas Ramfos for his induction into the Association of Commuter Transportation Hall of Fame. Ramfos has led the Commuter Connections program for the past 27 years—which has been nationally recognized as holding a gold standard for implementing travel demand strategies.                                     

NEXT MEETING

The next TPB meeting is scheduled for October 18 a 12:00 P.M. A YouTube livestream option is available for all TPB board meetings.

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