To make matters more complicated, some recent safety problems at Metro have damaged the system's reputation just when it needs public support to deal with financial setbacks caused by the COVID pandemic. As we've discussed in previous episodes, much of our planning hinges on a robust transportation network serving nearby housing and jobs in vibrant transit-oriented communities.

Robert McCartney (01:10):

The region is projected to add more than a million people in the next two decades, an increase of more than 20 percent. Imagine the gridlock on the Beltway, I-95, and other major highways without a significant addition to transit capacity. I spoke to Joe McAndrew, Vice President of Government Affairs & Infrastructure at the Greater Washington Partnership, an organization of CEOs of many of the region's largest employers.

Joe McAndrew (01:38):

We see a very big need to better connect our economic centers with modes other than the vehicle. I think that this is not all that different than other big regional plans. I think the big items are funding and sustained commitment across political cycles.

Robert McCartney (02:01):

Welcome to Think Regionally, a monthly podcast by the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments or COG. We analyze issues facing the Washington Metro region with an emphasis on finding solutions. I'm your host, Robert McCartney. This episode on public transit is the second in a three part series examining the future of the region as it recovers from the pandemic. The first episode looked at how the increase in telework was affecting where people choose to live and where employers locate jobs. The third one will examine prospects for the economy. We'll get to all that's going on with Metro later on in the podcast. Let's start by talking about some developments in two other important modes of transit: commuter rail and express buses.

Robert McCartney (02:48):

Right now, our commuter rail network is in the early stage of a far reaching renovation project which is expected to dramatically improve service between Richmond and Baltimore in coming decades. Nearly $4 billion has been approved to add tracks in Northern Virginia plus build a new rail bridge alongside the 118 year old Long Bridge across the Potomac between Arlington and the District [of Columbia]. There are also plans to replace the B&P Tunnel in Baltimore which dates to the Civil War and is one of the worst bottlenecks on the East Coast. Here's McAndrew, again.

Joe McAndrew (03:29):

The challenge is that our regional rail network is one that we're still using the system that was largely built and invested in by our great, great grandparents a hundred years ago. It's outdated. It doesn't yet provide the service or the frequencies that match the demands and the travel patterns that our residents need or that our employers are looking for. That's a huge, important opportunity for us if we can go ahead and make the critical investments over the coming years to unlock the opportunity. We think that we're going to be more competitive as a region.

Robert McCartney (04:07):

If the vision is achieved, tell us in summary, what would the commuter rail network look like say 20 years from now as opposed to how it looks today?

Joe McAndrew (04:19):

I think that in the next 10 years, we're going to see hourly train service between Richmond and the District of Columbia. That's a game changer. I-95 is challenged and unfortunately we cannot build our way out of the congestion that we see on that roadway. That's just in the next 10 years of what we can do. Within the next 25 years, we think that we can see train travel greatly expand between Baltimore and the District of Columbia, open up new opportunities for economic development at stations like Odenton which sits less than two miles away from Maryland's largest employment center at Fort Meade, and stimulate the growth that we will see at thriving, emerging, economic centers such as New Carrollton and Prince George's, or National Landing in Northern Virginia.

Robert McCartney (05:11):

The region also is planning to renovate the District's Union Station, the hub for rail travel in the region. A major improvement under consideration, which has been studied by the Transportation Planning Board at COG, is to allow for commuter trains operated by Virginia Railway Express or VRE, and Maryland's MARC system to pass through the station rather than always terminate there.

Joe McAndrew (05:37):

If we were to build a commuter railroad for the Washington Metro area today, you probably wouldn’t stop trains at Washington Union Station like MARC and VRE do. If you're a Northern Virginia resident and trying to get to a job at New Carrollton, you have to transfer. The train tracks actually connect between the two, but due to ownership and operating structures, we don't yet run a train for a one seat ride for a person to get from Maryland to Virginia through the District of Columbia or vice versa.

Robert McCartney (06:11):

An expansion of service along MARC’s Brunswick line, which runs from Union Station through Silver Spring and Germantown also would help relieve congestion in the I-270 corridor. All of this costs money of course, but more than usual is available since the federal government approved last year's bipartisan infrastructure package.

You said that there's 66 billion for this from the federal government, but we have to compete for it so what's involved in competing for it?

Joe McAndrew (06:41):

The life of this bill is a five year bill. We need to start pushing our projects forward now so that we can ultimately get into the pipeline to compete for dollars and secure the awards and then start construction. You know, this region has a lot of needs. It's going to be competitive. You know, our friends to the North in New York and New Jersey and Connecticut would gladly take all of those funds, so we have our work cut out for us.

Robert McCartney (07:10):

Now, let's talk about buses, the true workhorses of transit. The pandemic highlighted their value as bus ridership dropped only moderately while Metrorail ridership plunged. That's partly because Metrorail carries a high proportion of white collar employees who stopped commuting because they could telework from home. Service workers who have to be present at the work site are more likely to rely on the bus. Kate Mattice, executive director of the Northern Virginia Transportation Commission told me that before the pandemic, the number of Metro rail riders in Northern Virginia was nearly three times as high as the total number of rider using Metrobus and the five local bus systems there, but that's changed.

Kate Mattice (08:00):

Bus was the shining star of a transportation alternative during the height of COVID. It continued to serve people in Northern Virginia, DC, and our region. When you combine Metrobus and all of our local operators, we are just over Metrorail ridership in Virginia right now. They are moving folks really well within our region and I think opportunities abound to make it even better.

Robert McCartney (08:26):

To accomplish that, Northern Virginia is currently working to build or extend three major lines for bus rapid transit or BRT. Such service could play a large role in adding transit capacity in coming years because BRT is much cheaper and faster to construct than new subway or commuter rail lines. In Fairfax, the One BRT will travel up and down Richmond Highway or Route 1. The Route 7 BRT will connect Tysons with Alexandria. In Arlington, the Metroway is being extended to Pentagon City. All three take existing heavily traveled bus routes and use various enhancements to make service more rapid, reliable, and user friendly.

Kate Mattice (09:14):

Where bus rapid transit really works is where you already have a strong local bus network. If you think about it, it's really just taking something that is good that needs more. That's really where bus rapid transit shines. The most success you have is the ability to move those buses, right? So where you can take the opportunity to have dedicated lanes, or you can have what they call signal priority meaning when a bus comes up to a light, it's going to turn green, or it's going to keep the green longer so that a bus can go through. The other thing that can be offered with these is the ability to buy your fare or pay for your fare what they call off board so that everybody can just hop right onto the bus. Anything to do with buying a ticket is already done at a kiosk at those stations.

Robert McCartney (09:57):

The principle obstacle to building more BRT lines is the reluctance of drivers to give up one or two lanes needed to create the dedicated paths for the buses. That's particularly challenging in dense commercial areas such as city or town centers.

Kate Mattice (10:13):

The biggest challenge and you touched on it earlier is land use to be able to move these buses, having dedicated lanes. I'll give you perfect example. Our Route 7 BRT is going to be going through Falls Church. The City of Falls Church is a historic area. There is going to be parts of that where there will not be dedicated lanes and we know that.

Robert McCartney (10:36):

The other challenge is money, but the infusion of infrastructure dollars is a big help.

Kate Mattice (10:40):

The federal money does provide a fantastic opportunity specifically for capital. I think is important to remember that the federal money especially for public transit is to buy things. The transit capital could be anywhere from additional buses to maintenance facilities for even providing some infrastructure for these routes like stations and widening roads and things like that.

Robert McCartney (11:04):

Finally, let's look at the region's third and best known pillar of public transit, the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority, better known as WMATA or just Metro. Its future depends in large part on how it emerges in coming years from what is arguably its worst crisis, the 2009 Red Line crash. WMATA is dealing with two problems. One is a looming financial crunch caused largely by a loss of Metrorail riders who cut back on commuting when they switched to telework. The other is a loss of public confidence owing the safety problems. First with Metro's 7,000 series rail cars and then to a recent failure to re-certify train operators. I interviewed WMATA board chairman, Paul Smedberg.

Paul Smedberg (11:52):

It obviously has been frustrating and disappointing. I mean, there's no other way to put it.

Robert McCartney (11:58):

Metro's revenue plunged during the pandemic and its budget survived only because of federal relief money. That aid will dry up soon so the system is facing an operating deficit of several hundred million a year, beginning in the summer of 2023. Smedberg said he expected ridership would eventually recover to a significant extent partly because of job growth in Northern Virginia, but there's uncertainty about how much telework will continue in federal agencies and other workplaces. The chairman acknowledged that the board and its new general manager, Randy Clark, will have to make tough decisions to balance the books.

What are the long term prospects for restoring Metrorail ridership to pre pandemic levels?

Paul Smedberg (12:46):

Well you know Robert, I'm actually pretty optimistic about that. I think once the region does start to come back and people get into a pattern, we're going to be able to see how people are using the system and model our service after that in the future. I'm also looking at key employment areas, particularly in the Northern Virginia region and out towards I-66 and the toll road there and Tysons, of course. The one big factor in a lot of this as you know Robert is the federal government. What is it they ultimately decide to do?

Robert McCartney (13:21):

Yeah, Joe McAndrew when I talked to him, he's saying that we're looking at an operating deficit of $300 million a year and the jurisdictions are either going to have to come up with that or there's going to have to be a cut in service. Do you think it's that dire? That's a lot of money for the jurisdictions to come up with right now.

Paul Smedberg (13:43):

It's a lot of money. I mean, I think our original projections were actually closer to five... Half a billion. In a last brief to the legislators in Richmond, that was the figure I was given after this last budget go around. Then some of the numbers that came in from the ridership, we saw that shrink but you're right. 300 million is still a sizeable deficit. You know, I think the board is very mindful that we're going to have to do a real deep dive with our new general manager here to see how we manage this moving forward because it is definitely going to be a challenge.

Robert McCartney (14:21):

The projected red ink in the operating budget is especially worrisome when you consider some recent history. It required a prolonged, major effort in the region to procure a historic deal just four years ago to provide Metro with $500 million a year in dedicated capital funding to be used for equipment and renovations. The state and local governments that subsidize Metro will not look kindly on an appeal so soon for more help to pay for operations, but increased funding may be the only alternative given Metro's importance to the region.

Paul Smedberg (14:56):

I think our elected leaders and business leaders certainly understand that Metro is one of the main foundation blocks of this region's economy and is key to its continued success. You know, we're all going to have to come together at some point and come up with creative solutions and have some really tough conversations.

Robert McCartney (15:18):

Recalling his past service on the Alexandria City Council, Smedberg suggested that it may be necessary to change the funding structure for WMATA because some county and municipal governments will no longer be able to afford to pay higher subsidies.

Paul Smedberg (15:33):

I was a local elected and on the Virginia side we have the localities pay a lion share of that funding. I'm concerned that type of funding support even capped at 3% may not be sustainable even for them moving forward. They're paying a sizable amount of money into transit right now in addition to their bus systems. That's going to be something I think people are going to be looking at.

Robert McCartney (15:59):

Looking to the future, one of Metro's top priorities is adding a second rail tunnel under the Potomac next to the one used by the Orange, Blue, and Silver lines between the Rosslyn and Foggy Bottom Stations. It's a bottleneck now leading to delays in the so-called ‘Orange Crush.’

Paul Smedberg (16:18):

Once some of these projects of state of good repair and station renovations come to an end, we really got to start thinking about those bigger projects. The infamous Orange Crush is definitely one of them, but it definitely has to be done. It's not just for the Virginia side. I mean, it's for the entire system. I think we have a lot of opportunity with our new general manager who is coming in fresh eye, a lot of energy. He has a lot of experience and we've already been talking about how are we going to communicate and report to the board and us collaborating with management I think in a different way that has probably happened in the past.

Robert McCartney (17:04):

Now I'll share some of my own thoughts about the topic. Expanding public transit is expensive and disruptive, but it's the only realistic way for the region to simultaneously accomplish three goals. Accommodate a growing population, avoid crippling highway gridlock, and reduce pollution. The good news is that progress is underway to improve service in the long term, in both commuter rail and bus rapid transit. Between Richmond and the District, the region has taken some major first steps to add tracks and a bridge to provide a rail alternative for drivers stuck on I-95. To complete the vision, it will have to renovate Union Station, replace the Baltimore Tunnel, and speed service between the District and Baltimore. The region also is working to lure more drivers to use buses by introducing BRT lines to reduce travel times and enhance the rider experience. Adding BRT is usually the cheapest and quickest way to improve transit options so we should see more of that throughout the region.

The region's biggest transit challenge right now is unquestionably the cloud hanging over WMATA, the core of the region's overall transit network. Area leaders have tough work ahead of them to ensure the system's financial stability while demanding safety and management improvements. Ultimately, the region must ensure not only that WMATA overcomes its current challenges, but is in a position to expand in coming decades to better serve our region. This includes tackling critical long term issues like a second Potomac Tunnel, as well as envisioning service along the Wilson Bridge and into new parts of our growing region.

I hope you've enjoyed this podcast. We welcome your feedback. Please email comments to thinkregionally@mwcog.org. This podcast is produced by Janelle Partman and Steve Kania. Until next month, this is your host, Robert McCartney urging everyone to think regionally.