Visualize 2045, the metropolitan Washington region’s draft long-range transportation plan update, is available for comment through May 1. The 2022 update builds on the 2018 Visualize 2045 plan. With the past plan as its foundation, what is new or what stands out in the 2022 update? The latest Visualize 2045 plan marks recent progress in improved air quality, emphasizes transportation’s role in climate change, recognizes increasing regional interest in bicycling and walking, and supports high capacity, reliable transit service designed to bring housing and jobs closer together. Also, through a new public outreach effort called Voices of the Region, the TPB incorporates public feedback in the plan as to how transportation enhancements and challenges impact the lives of the region’s residents. 

Long-range planning analyzes projected growth

As a long-range transportation plan, Visualize 2045 documents existing transportation system conditions and travel needs alongside forecasted changes in population, housing, employment, and their associated travel demand. The plan then partners the current and future information with strategies that address needs, emerging mobility trends, and challenges. Because transportation does not exist in a vacuum and is linked to residential development, job locations, freight shipments, and leisure activities—solutions to transportation challenges must also be interconnected. This is where Visualize 2045 has a role in bringing together TPB member jurisdictional plans and programs into one regional plan.

Addressing regional transportation needs

As a living document, the plan recognizes that safety, resiliency preparation, equitable access, housing affordability, and public health are continually evolving. Through Aspirational Initiatives—regional priorities endorsed by the TPB in 2018 and carried forward in the 2022 update—Visualize 2045 promotes the following concepts to meet the expressed transportation needs of residents, state and local governments, and the business sector:

• Bringing jobs and housing closer together through transportation
• Expanding bus rapid transit and transitways
• Moving more people on Metrorail
• Providing more commuting and telecommuting options
• Expanding the express highway network
• Improving walking and biking access to transit
• Completing the National Trail Network

Residents of the region have voiced the need to approach climate change mitigation through transportation decisions. While the Aspirational Initiatives concepts already reflect many low- and no-carbon multimodal strategies, the TPB is discussing the potential for including additional feasible transportation sector climate change mitigation goals and strategies for future planning.

As part of the Visualize 2045 Voices of the Region outreach, the TPB heard that 84 percent of individuals surveyed are concerned about climate change and want transportation officials to consider it as they plan for the future. Since 2005, absolute annual GHG emissions in the on-road transportation sector have decreased by seven percent. By 2045, the latest analysis shows that annual GHG emissions are forecasted to be nearly 18 percent below 2005 emissions levels or 11 percent below 2023 emissions levels in total and 43 percent per capita. With more green transportation options on the horizon, the region should see greater carbon emissions reductions.  

One project that stands out as an example that addresses many of the TPB’s goals while offering greener commuting is the Long Bridge project, a joint effort of the District of Columbia and the Commonwealth of Virginia. The Long Bridge was included in the 2020 amendment to the 2018 Visualize 2045 plan and is continued in the 2022 Visualize 2045 update. The Long Bridge project includes construction of a new two-track bridge upstream of the existing two-track Long Bridge across the Potomac River, resulting in a four-track crossing of the Potomac River. A new bicycle and pedestrian shared-use path crossing over the river is planned as part of the project resulting in a more cohesive rail network between Richmond and Baltimore that will double long-term capacity for freight and passenger rail traffic and expand cycling and walking options. 

Travel Choices

Rail connections and bicycle and pedestrian opportunities are important to residents throughout the region—not just in the core close to the District of Columbia. Congestion is a concern, particularly in outer jurisdictions with land uses and Activity Centers that are more spread out, making it more difficult to provide frequent transit and making it more challenging for people to connect from place to place by walking and biking. However, the outer jurisdictions are also demonstrating they are on board with improving connections for people who walk, bike, and take transit. For example, Frederick and Charles Counties in Maryland are in the process of developing guidance for application of Complete Streets, and Prince William and Loudoun Counties in Virginia have Complete Streets policies. A specific example of bicycle and pedestrian connection improvements is the Route 123 widening project in Prince William County that includes planned segments of pedestrian and bicycle facilities.

Over two-thirds of Voices of the Region survey respondents (69 percent) said that congestion impacts their daily lives, with 44 percent responding that congestion is a significant concern. The Visualize 2045 update includes projects that address congestion hot spots. These include strategic widenings and I-495 Express lanes. Because roadway projects have limited effect on overall congestion mitigation, providing multimodal choices through transit, rail, cycling, and walking is projected to decrease residential vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per capita by more than five percent in the region by 2045. Residential vehicle use has the most potential for change compared to other uses, such as freight. Travel in the region on reliable modes that are represented by the Aspirational Initiatives will increase from 11 to 15 percent. Reliable modes such as rail, bus rapid transit, and High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) or Express lanes are less impacted by congestion and delay, so more people will experience reliable travel.

Voices of the Region survey respondents expressed support for expanded efficient, high-capacity transit services, including dedicated bus lanes. Examples of Visualize 2045 projects implementing bus rapid transit and transitways include the K Street Transitway in the District of Columbia, Flash BRT in Montgomery County, Maryland, and the One and Crystal City Transitway BRT in Virginia. By 2045, it is projected that more than one-quarter of the population and half of the jobs will be near high-capacity transit.

With additional projects planned for BRT and rail expansion, in 2045:

• Activity Centers will contain 67 percent of jobs and 35 percent of the region’s population.
• More than one-quarter of residents and one-half of jobs will be close to High-Capacity Transit Station Areas.  
• Bicycling and walking will make up 15 percent of all trips. One-quarter of work trips will be on public transit.

Incorporating an equity lens

The TPB requested that the 2022 update incorporate an equity lens. As discussed in Chapter 6 of the plan, the TPB uses Equity Emphasis Areas (EEAs) to analyze the financially constrained element of Visualize 2045 by looking at the forecasted performance of the transportation system and comparing accessibility and mobility measures for the EEAs versus other areas of the region. As transportation agencies invest funds in projects, programs and policies, the impact of those projects and the opportunities they offer to traditionally underserved communities can be examined by looking at whether and how those investments serve the EEAs. Sponsors of projects contained in the plan indicate that 109 projects in the constrained element of Visualize 2045 are in EEAs, and 129 projects connect an EEA to a regional Activity Center, where there are high concentrations of jobs and life destinations. An estimated total of $41.8 billion in project funding should help improve transportation options for those who live in or near EEAs.

The Voices of the Region public involvement process is itself an example of how equity is incorporated into the plan. Through surveys, focus groups, and outreach, the TPB has provided an opportunity for all residents of the region, particularly historically disadvantaged populations, to be heard and to inform the plan.

Tracking Progress

Finally, let’s consider how improvements in recent years reflect systems progress. Air Quality Conformity is one example of how progress is being made.  

Chapter 8 of the Visualize 2045 plan update and Appendix C describe how the metropolitan Washington region is monitored for air quality affected by Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) pollutants. Effective August 3, 2018, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) designated the region as “marginal” non-attainment. The designation means that the TPB must estimate levels of mobile source VOCs and NOx because those pollutants combine with sunlight in the atmosphere to form ground-level ozone. For the plan to meet federal Air Quality Conformity requirements, the TPB must show that mobile source VOC and NOx emissions are forecast to stay below the motor vehicle emissions budgets set by the Metropolitan Washington Air Quality Committee (MWAQC) and approved by the EPA.

Ozone levels in the region have decreased over time, with the levels above 100 parts per billion (ppb) in the late 1990s to 70 ppb at the end of summer 2021. The federal ozone standards have gotten more stringent through time.

Emission reductions and the plan update’s Air Quality Conformity status are the result of several factors, including transit improvement projects and ride sharing initiatives supported through federal Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality (CMAQ) Improvement Program funding.

Results

The region is adding one million jobs and 1.3 million people by 2045. As noted in Chapter 7 of Visualize 2045, only 19 percent of forecasted transportation expenditures in the region are for system expansion--the remainder is dedicated to operations and maintaining a state of good repair. This means that the most must be made of every dollar. Transportation investments focused on the Aspirational Initiative areas can bring real results through implementation of transportation projects that residents of the region will choose to use and enthusiastically support moving forward!