As the world recognizes the one-year mark of the COVID-19 crisis, local leaders are analyzing the economic impacts of the pandemic in metropolitan Washington. COG Community Planning and Services Director Paul DesJardin provided an analysis of regional employment, housing construction, and office and retail vacancy rates to the COG Board of Directors at its March 2021 meeting.
During the peak of the pandemic, the region lost 300,000 jobs between April and May 2020, but as of December, partial reopening efforts have helped replace 180,000 of those jobs. While unemployment has been on a steady decline following a peak in April, the region still stands a full two points (5.6%) above its pre-pandemic rate (3.3%). Data shows higher job loss in sectors like leisure and hospitality, accommodation and food services, education, and government.
The pandemic has also had an observable effect on the region’s housing targets, approved by the COG Board of Directors in 2019. The number of new housing permits has declined over a two-year period, standing at 21,286 permits in January 2021. This number is significantly below the 32,000 permits per year needed to meet the production target of 320,000 new housing units by 2030.
Another notable trend has been the increase in office and retail vacancies throughout the region. As employers consider their long-term posture on telework, DesJardin noted that their decisions will have a major effect on commercial real estate trends and should continue to be closely monitored.
“If we start to see corporate users downsizing their footprint that’s going to affect the overall evaluations of those properties and that’s going to affect the ability of local government to tax those commercial opportunities” said Fairfax County Supervisor and COG Board Member Rodney Lusk.
The Transportation Planning Board (TPB) at COG continues to explore how the pandemic has changed travel patterns and employers and residents’ perspectives on telework and transportation in the region. For example, results from last Fall’s Voices of the Region survey showed that people expect to walk and bike more and see themselves teleworking well after the pandemic.
The economic presentation is part of a larger COVID-19 analysis, including health, transportation, and environmental data, and will continue to be updated as COG tracks the impacts of the pandemic from a multi-sector perspective. This approach is essential in helping area leaders plan for a more equitable and resilient region.
In addition, COG provides its members and the public with economic data on a monthly basis. To view the data or join its email subscription list, visit the Regional Economic Monitoring System (REMS) report web page.