The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) Board of Directors adopted the regional analysis of the impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and Closure Recommendations for the Washington Metropolitan Region. 

The analysis, performed by COG staff and the Center for Regional Analysis of George Mason University, will be forwarded to the independent Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Commission, as well as the local, state and federal leaders.  The COG study considered impacts not previously considered in DoD’s recommendations to the BRAC Commission such as air quality, transportation and transit use.

The COG Board also expressed concern over DoD anti-terrorism building standards by stating that they are inconsistent with local land-use policies such as transit-oriented development.  COG is recommending that all federal agencies examine building standards developed by the U.S. General Services Administration to “ensure that security measures are effective and consistent with local land-use policies.”

Key findings in the COG BRAC analysis:

• Employment forecasts for 2010 would initially drop by 15,000 jobs in the metropolitan Washington region, followed by an increase to 13,700 more jobs than original projections indicated the region would have in 2020.

• Jurisdictions expected to see an initial employment decline related to BRAC changes would include Arlington County, Alexandria and the District of Columbia.  

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• The region would see approximately 8,500 more homes in 2020 than originally anticipated. Prince William County would experience the greatest increase with 3,000 more households.

• Forecasted use of public transit would be reduced by approximately 1.84 percent in 2010. Automobile commutes would be expected to increase by roughly 26,800 trips -- less than 1 percent – at the same time. By 2020, regional transit trips would be 0.52 percent less than originally expected. 

“Our technical analysis predicts that BRAC may not have an enormous impact on the region as a whole.  At the local level, however, when compared to our adopted forecasts, BRAC may have a significant effect on several jurisdictions,” said COG Executive Director David Robertson. 

On May 13, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld sent the recommendations to the independent Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Commission.  The BRAC Commission must report its final decisions to the President no later than September 8, 2005. 

Please refer to the following links for COG's BRAC analysis:

BRAC Report: Impacts of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Recommendations (1.5 MB PDF)

BRAC Report: Appendix A-Base Listing DC-MD-VA (1 MB PDF)

BRAC Report: Appendix B-DoD UFC standards (2.7 MB)

BRAC Report: Appendix C-NCPC Urban Design Standards (1.1 MB)

BRAC Report: Appendix D-GMU Methodolgy (1.2 MB PDF)

BRAC Report: Appendix E-Nov 04 COG NCPC Security Conference (1.3 MB PDF)

BRAC Report: Appendix F-NAIOP article on ISC and UFC (1.9 MB PDF)

Presentation to Northern Virginia Association of Realtors Economic Summit on Assessment of Final Recommendations of BRAC Commission for the Washington Metropolitan Region (455 KB PDF)